Spillway

Idea Lab · Oct 21 2026 · AI idea demo

Spillway

A cascade sends every request to a small, cheap model first and escalates to a large one when the small model isn't sure. The whole design hangs on one number, the confidence cutoff, and most teams pick it by feel. Spillway takes a labeled sample of past cases, shows how escalation rate, error, latency and cost move as the cutoff moves, and recommends the cheapest cutoff that stays inside your error budget. Below is a working version on 400 synthetic cases.

Example data · 400 synthetic cases, generated in the page · not real benchmark results

0.30
5.0%

Error and escalation by cutoff

Error rateShare escalated to large modelError budget

At this cutoff

Escalated to large model
Wrong answers
Mean latency per case
Cost per 1,000 calls
Recommended cutoff

Assumed per-call costs: small model 20 s and $0.02 per 1,000; large model 150 s and $0.60 per 1,000. Both are placeholders you'd replace with your own.

Threshold table

CutoffEscalatedErrorMean latencyCost / 1k

What to try

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